Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e464ec955779b5e9bb16a79e710b5513d974ee03436a4336c62911df61fc58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 1c | 2,328$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,533$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…c7d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,304$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,247$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 825.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 616.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 65c | 373.88$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 9c | 291.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes | 7c | 276.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…a0eabacked Yes | 12c | 227.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Yes | 7c | 224.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 9c | 205$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbee…7b46backed Yes | 47c | 164.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 152.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…0e90backed Yes | 32c | 105.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 104.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 23c | 85.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 15c | 71.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 77c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 20c | 54.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 53.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…f68bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 44.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 25c | 39.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 62c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…ac1dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on January 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.