Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e845557e2d8c62ecd01787113d43eff8176619db31c28c5e346e6f34518c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 59c | 373.9$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 329.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 197.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 168.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 148.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 144.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 18c | 131.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 25c | 105.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 82.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 75c | 77.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 77.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 76.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 74.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 16c | 70.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 30c | 67.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 67.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 70c | 56.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 60c | 56.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 25c | 52.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 51.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 50.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 49.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 46.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 43.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 43.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 27c | 41.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 39c | 41.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 49c | 40.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 33.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 55c | 27.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 26.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 69c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 79c | 24.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 23.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 23.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 77c | 21.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 19.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 79c | 16.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.