NFL · resolved market
Will Ja'Marr Chase play Week 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ee4c8dbe67d411183f5bd59595ae828d67798b3c95032380373755f1cf3744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 23c | 2,121$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.49 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 7c | 1,372$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed No | 11c | 948.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…147dbacked No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 7c | 704.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 8c | 515.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 6c | 264.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked No | 9c | 201.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 16c | 200.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…6435backed Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…57a9backed Yes | 79c | 125.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 29c | 76.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 75c | 74.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 45.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…50c7backed Yes | 71c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…f2cdbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.