Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea vs. Wolves end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33eead2bc302c6f4201e4e57cb767662df1ebfb0aa1334409e8e0d14a1b1c519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 1c | 12,345$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +15.6wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +437.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 19c | 2,573$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 2c | 922.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 18c | 585.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…042bbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 3c | 551.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…1b35backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yes | 18c | 450$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3db…bc45backed Yes | 18c | 386.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 21c | 307.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 7c | 229.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71e9…1248backed Yes | 12c | 209.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…5a12backed Yes | 18c | 176.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 17c | 174.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1fe8backed Yes | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 79c | 66.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e5…b199backed Yes | 25c | 60.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed No | 76c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea vs. Wolves end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20?Yes won
- Will Wolves win on 2025-01-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.