Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34045e0ee751d8c702460c8c8c636503f64e2370b8d1d980de432f377da67828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 61c | 1,014$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.94 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 1c | 831.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10dc…a9dcbacked Yes | 58c | 740.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 4c | 731.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 20c | 471.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 8c | 466.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 461.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6730…9634backed No | 17c | 396.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 59c | 354.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 67c | 345.97$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 341.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 293.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed No | 58c | 277.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 69c | 275.63$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 261.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.59 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 255.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.57 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…73babacked No | 9c | 225.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 58c | 222.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 211.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 42c | 211.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 78c | 196.48$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 25c | 182.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 55c | 181.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…24adbacked No | 25c | 165.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9d…7971backed No | 70c | 138.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 13c | 124.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 12c | 116.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 69c | 96.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…253bbacked No | 48c | 95.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed No | 45c | 94.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 59c | 89.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…a194backed No | 65c | 89.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…7f46backed Yes | 44c | 87.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…b6cfbacked Yes | 33c | 84.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 76.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 39c | 73.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 67c | 68.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 20c | 66.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 64c | 66.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 49c | 58.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 55.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 53.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 25c | 53.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 60c | 53.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 54c | 52.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…1e83backed Yes | 43c | 44.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +90%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…9181backed Yes | 42c | 43.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 43.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed No | 45c | 42.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 41.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 47c | 40.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 50c | 39.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 38.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 49c | 36.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed No | 63c | 35.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 60c | 35.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 38c | 34.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed Yes | 80c | 33.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 39c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…7107backed Yes | 47c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 28.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 44c | 27.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…48eebacked Yes | 42c | 25.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 51c | 20.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…f01abacked Yes | 54c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 67c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.