Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14cf1e6932c60f59f3bce46efa64a95beb82acf2fb165fa88a2132ca48e3e1c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34bc…73babacked Yes | 10c | 959.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 39c | 364.84$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 310$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 21c | 299.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 294.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes | 6c | 284.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 12c | 227.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10dc…a9dcbacked No | 68c | 199.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 175.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 159.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 79c | 139.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…b6cfbacked Yes | 29c | 126.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 111.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 66c | 107.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 104.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 72c | 90.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 89.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 82.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…e560backed Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 69c | 69.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…f27ebacked Yes | 29c | 63.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 56.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 52.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 28c | 43.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 33c | 43.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 34c | 41.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…7107backed Yes | 36c | 38.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 36.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…0f0bbacked No | 63c | 31.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 39c | 31.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 28.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 26.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed No | 77c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 24.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 23.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 60c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 74c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.