Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34103da0ed34628ec9aa02b380890b29d20492aae48ba782c672b2d46450da22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 35c | 286.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d68…fe87backed Yes | 37c | 207.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 25c | 177.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 144.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 132.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 127.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 126.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 9c | 116.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 34c | 114.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 29c | 92.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 85.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 76.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 55c | 69.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 38c | 66.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 71c | 49.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 46.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 69c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 43.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 29c | 42.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…72c3backed No | 66c | 38.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 77c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 34c | 32.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 69c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 68c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 59c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.