Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59872962826bb1260c56fec2e9b66565bb99855ff41085a524d93d0fb39f0dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 47c | 367.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 350$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 53c | 340.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.68 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 261.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 234.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 63c | 209.76$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 208$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 180.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 60c | 172.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 28c | 166.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 149.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 35c | 144.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 64c | 141.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 132.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 109.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 42c | 95.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 77.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 51c | 69.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 68.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 45c | 66.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 63.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 48c | 62.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 44c | 56.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 58c | 51.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 33c | 50.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 50.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 51c | 48.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 42c | 47.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…72c3backed No | 43c | 46.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 37c | 46.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 41.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 69c | 36.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 36.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes | 49c | 34.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 34.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 62c | 31.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…0e3abacked Yes | 56c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 58c | 21.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 56c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 53c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…cc0fbacked Yes | 61c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.