CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3416eea1fb97f9e1194d762e1f8763954719b7890595044c71d04ad0bdf39b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilmixof Young Ninjas, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5407…251cbacked Lilmix | 50c | 3,813$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.28 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 1,019$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Lilmix | 50c | 758.11$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.06 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf868…3b45backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 533.5$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.75 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 514.1$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Young Ninjas | 64c | 440.87$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.54 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Young Ninjas | 61c | 343.09$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 326.89$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…2d2dbacked Young Ninjas | 50c | 300.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…ae26backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 289.6$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…5d92backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 276.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…0ea1backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Young Ninjas | 62c | 191.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Lilmix | 50c | 182.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Young Ninjas | 50c | 155.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…72febacked Young Ninjas | 50c | 147.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…e2a8backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 124.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…0a26backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 106.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Young Ninjas | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 58.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…66b6backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…7736backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdce…1588backed Young Ninjas | 50c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +581.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series 1 PlayoffsYoung Ninjas won
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 WinnerYoung Ninjas won
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 WinnerLilmix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.