Premier League · resolved market
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342a309b6e8cc613b2528f7cdbac8a35f5ce87819d4a2e9d9871285b4891c509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 24c | 1,313$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.12 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 1,295$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.28 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Over | 23c | 600.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 455.94$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 77c | 267$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 71c | 245.33$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 77c | 169$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 77c | 157$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 77c | 156$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 78c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 74c | 49.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Over | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Over | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 40.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 23.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.