Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Dusan Lajovic vs Francesco Maestrelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345222dadfa0e4f5ce53c55aff099f2936bd330c88a6fd7b1037693e59fbeff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maestrelliof Lajovic, Maestrelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lajovic | 67c | 2,855$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.73 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Maestrelli | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Maestrelli | 48c | 1,591$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.9 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dff…b486backed Lajovic | 73c | 999.48$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Maestrelli | 29c | 949.2$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.6 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lajovic | 26c | 837.73$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Lajovic | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lajovic | 70c | 317.45$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…f3b3backed Maestrelli | 27c | 253.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Lajovic | 53c | 207.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lajovic | 78c | 185$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Lajovic | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Lajovic | 55c | 179.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Maestrelli | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Lajovic | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Maestrelli | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Lajovic | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Lajovic | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Maestrelli | 48c | 77.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Lajovic | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Lajovic | 48c | 57.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maestrelli | 28c | 43.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Maestrelli | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Maestrelli | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…9ff7backed Lajovic | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Maestrelli | 61c | 38.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Lajovic | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Lajovic | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.