Fifa International · resolved market
Will Croatia beat Portugal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3464d6132efe217b0a716c4f87b957a36adba66d7a0c37a2a56d3e623e79116c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 61c | 1,500$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 39c | 1,300$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 13c | 1,155$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 38c | 694.92$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.07 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed No | 62c | 290.31$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…0d45backed Yes | 31c | 222.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 59c | 159.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 77c | 158.64$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 39c | 123.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 145 | 26.2%38 W · 107 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…4cc5backed No | 61c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia beat Portugal?this page
- Will Portugal beat Croatia?No won
- Will the match between Croatia and Portugal end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.