NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x346902bf68845d6a870cc310ef1fc94bcfea38f42781ea40903f3f03bf476181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 51c | 42,616$21,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,881.69 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 20,612$10,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,093.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 9,375$4,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,593.75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 8,877$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.73 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 2,200$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.75 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…7e28backed Over | 51c | 1,959$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…67c9backed Over | 50c | 1,546$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 1,451$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.27 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 52c | 1,414$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.72 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…5940backed Under | 49c | 1,325$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…9c99backed Over | 51c | 1,245$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…6a85backed Over | 51c | 1,203$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…970bbacked Under | 50c | 1,154$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…0256backed Under | 49c | 1,145$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…ff20backed Under | 49c | 1,123$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 1,114$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.09 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd4…bbb3backed Over | 51c | 1,092$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…ddd2backed Over | 51c | 1,076$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…9645backed Under | 49c | 1,023$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…23ebbacked Under | 50c | 1,023$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…ed48backed Under | 49c | 1,023$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0f…369fbacked Under | 49c | 936$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc9…271abacked Under | 49c | 875$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…e2c6backed Over | 51c | 865$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8a…0d93backed Over | 51c | 837$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…74cdbacked Under | 49c | 836$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…20f9backed Over | 51c | 833$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…5065backed Under | 49c | 828$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…0040backed Over | 51c | 827$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…30ccbacked Under | 49c | 823$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Under | 49c | 693.88$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…7465backed Over | 50c | 523$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…219ebacked Under | 50c | 523$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 452.88$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.03 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 357$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 47c | 134.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…17c3backed Over | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 57c | 115.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21e…5e3ebacked Under | 47c | 48.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 155 | 60.6%94 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8d…4a1cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
- Warriors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.