NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4116117a410f5327def3cc405d771208cc9899a21007789e7d3030021a3c182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 32,400$16,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,072 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Warriors | 49c | 22,419$10,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,985.19 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Nuggets | 51c | 17,011$8,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,384.89 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 50c | 10,216$5,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,158.1 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Warriors | 12c | 5,995$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.9 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 49c | 5,669$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Warriors | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Warriors | 49c | 4,484$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.97 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.97 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors | 50c | 2,511$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Warriors | 50c | 2,380$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.92 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…219ebacked Nuggets | 51c | 1,705$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…0256backed Warriors | 49c | 1,354$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…5940backed Warriors | 49c | 1,325$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…6a85backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,318$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…9c99backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,289$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…9645backed Warriors | 49c | 1,253$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd4…bbb3backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,223$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…ddd2backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,124$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…23ebbacked Nuggets | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc9…271abacked Warriors | 49c | 1,056$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…e2c6backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,023$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…ff20backed Warriors | 49c | 1,022$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8a…0d93backed Nuggets | 51c | 969$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…67c9backed Nuggets | 51c | 964$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 46c | 949.34$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…0040backed Warriors | 49c | 936$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Nuggets | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…7465backed Warriors | 49c | 863$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0f…369fbacked Warriors | 49c | 842$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…74cdbacked Warriors | 49c | 839$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…5065backed Nuggets | 51c | 834$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…20f9backed Nuggets | 51c | 828$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…30ccbacked Warriors | 49c | 823$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 47c | 566.04$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.04 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…1a9dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Nuggets | 50c | 562$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…e331backed Warriors | 49c | 542$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…ed48backed Warriors | 49c | 536$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 51c | 503.12$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…970bbacked Warriors | 49c | 501$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Warriors | 49c | 482.14$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…7e28backed Warriors | 49c | 463$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets | 54c | 411.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.11 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Nuggets | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 48c | 397$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.56 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 33c | 345.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Nuggets | 52c | 336.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Warriors | 51c | 211.76$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Warriors | 47c | 167.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Nuggets | 49c | 121.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Nuggets | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Warriors | 52c | 101.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…a43fbacked Nuggets | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…e803backed Warriors | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 50c | 65.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Nuggets | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Nuggets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Warriors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Nuggets | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…1f27backed Warriors | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Nuggets | 53c | 37.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Nuggets | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Nuggets | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Warriors | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Warriors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.