CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x346c1f61ed21b5f3d693c2de42b73498d3c3923107910ca458cb2d54c12cf957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof Vitality, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Vitality | 58c | 1,783$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.5 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid | 42c | 1,013$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.04 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Liquid | 40c | 909.27$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.47 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Liquid | 42c | 745.62$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.12 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Vitality | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid | 41c | 454.86$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.67 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Vitality | 60c | 433$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Vitality | 59c | 342.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Liquid | 42c | 225.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Vitality | 62c | 196.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Liquid | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Vitality | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Liquid | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…d4f1backed Vitality | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Vitality | 58c | 82.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Vitality | 60c | 77.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked Vitality | 63c | 77.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Vitality | 59c | 72.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Liquid | 41c | 72.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Vitality | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Vitality | 40c | 48.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Vitality | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Liquid | 40c | 47.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Liquid | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vitality | 60c | 44.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Vitality | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 603 | 58.5%353 W · 250 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…a659backed Liquid | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Vitality | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Vitality | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed Vitality | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…7a60backed Vitality | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality - Map 1 WinnerLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality - Map 2 WinnerLiquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs Liquid (+6.5)Liquid won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs Liquid (+6.5)Liquid won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.