Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x346d063959688b00c1e5b1affa6ee28685bc76575fe81016e4a849c00ac15a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Sabalenka, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa27b…d185backed Sabalenka | 1c | 1,019$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Sabalenka | 24c | 933.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Rybakina | 65c | 553.85$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Sabalenka | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Rybakina | 66c | 468.92$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Rybakina | 79c | 467.94$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sabalenka | 35c | 461$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Rybakina | 65c | 452.56$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.38 | 127 | 65.4%83 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 62c | 440.02$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.21 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sabalenka | 34c | 316.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabalenka | 20c | 308.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Rybakina | 67c | 300.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabalenka | 16c | 261.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Sabalenka | 34c | 223.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Rybakina | 67c | 219.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Rybakina | 67c | 216.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 302 | 58.6%177 W · 125 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Sabalenka | 32c | 173.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Rybakina | 67c | 170.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Sabalenka | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Sabalenka | 34c | 119.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sabalenka | 32c | 112.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Sabalenka | 33c | 83.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Sabalenka | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Rybakina | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Rybakina | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Sabalenka | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sabalenka | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Rybakina | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Rybakina | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Rybakina | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Sabalenka | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Rybakina | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rybakina | 63c | 21.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Rybakina | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.