Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737eb1ba58710be04b3ef47e36bbe61e998ec37f851d682f068b925423f8b32c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.25 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 45c | 1,439$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.74 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 45c | 1,336$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.2 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 20c | 1,197$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.44 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 20c | 1,100$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 799.44$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Over | 57c | 427.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.35 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 378.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Over | 55c | 283.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…52febacked Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 45c | 88.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 83.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Under | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 69.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 52c | 43.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 45c | 29.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 45c | 29.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 23.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 57c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.