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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes6c3,255$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5917224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes3c1,899$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3812441.9%52 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+94.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes5c1,807$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.41,37020.7%283 W · 1,087 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes5c1,529$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8913127.5%36 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes5c895.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5441927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No69c782.2$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9882742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes7c705.01$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.849712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes5c705$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2514828.4%42 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes5c626.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022825.9%59 W · 169 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes6c615$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.432,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes11c519.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7120710.1%21 W · 186 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes4c458$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.549652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c429$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes33c400.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7762960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd394…7e90backed Yes4c327.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35649.4%6 W · 58 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No62c325.84$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.641,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes34c321.7$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1813438.8%52 W · 82 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes10c313.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3712,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes7c312.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.288028.8%23 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes4c288.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.531974.6%9 W · 188 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+82.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c268.22$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.584,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c223.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes23c220$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.765832.8%19 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+67.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c218.17$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.068,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No75c213.6$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7153548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes27c201.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.472,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,86625.4%474 W · 1,392 L+134.7wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c198$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.341,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes33c188.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.76835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes14c171.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.561,09329.6%324 W · 769 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c161.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.57,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed No68c160.85$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0219046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes34c160.36$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5425158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes14c156.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.932412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes35c151.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5354738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No70c150.21$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5935283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes21c140$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0214727.9%41 W · 106 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes8c139.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.231,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes12c129.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.078236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes35c128.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453871.1%27 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes28c117$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.925,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes22c113.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.472222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+59.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes34c99.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4726253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes24c94.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5160032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No73c86.7$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.693778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes21c82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.621,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes32c81.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.215327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3734…c1c8backed Yes14c79.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes30c75.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0658850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes30c75.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5327944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No73c75.04$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0453373.7%393 W · 140 L+36.8wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c70.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.344,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4868…a1c1backed Yes35c69.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.542065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c66.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351,15425%289 W · 865 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes25c66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.372620.4%148 W · 578 L-46.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes35c65.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4758247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1462539.7%248 W · 377 L+28.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.455238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c59.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.645,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes22c54.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0399757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes20c50.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3720736.7%76 W · 131 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No65c50.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.686864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8002…7895backed Yes39c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked No75c46.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes27c43.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.487532%24 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No66c40.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7424570.6%173 W · 72 L+22.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No68c39.69$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.725569%176 W · 79 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes28c39.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1224756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No73c38.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6112064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c33.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031,41765.2%924 W · 493 L+59.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No67c26.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7357559.7%343 W · 232 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.463,12661.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L-30.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No65c25.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.846261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.831,59778.6%1,255 W · 342 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b8…e849backed No67c21.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.075156.9%29 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fc…89f2backed No80c20.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.211145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No74c20.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.291,36769.2%946 W · 421 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No67c20.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No78c19.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2619946.2%92 W · 107 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6288…fd46backed No69c16.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.192466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc6…55bfbacked No79c15.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.198485.7%72 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick78cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.