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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40a…e4a2backed No66c906.04$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.971,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes33c556.95$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7362146.2%287 W · 334 L+40.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c532.86$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6110,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes34c493.93$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1489259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c407.49$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.134,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes9c317.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.788,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No77c316.07$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.331,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes29c300$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.552839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No63c300$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.859652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes29c276.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011527.8%32 W · 83 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c264.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.832,28014.7%336 W · 1,944 L+51.5wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes18c250.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1182742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c248.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.977,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes15c228.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.341,09329.6%324 W · 769 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes13c227.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3712945.7%59 W · 70 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes35c223.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.695431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes24c202.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.235832.8%19 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+67.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes26c199.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9941927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes11c193.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0419046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes34c192.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.413,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes14c183.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6955942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No62c183.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.252,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes20c170.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9153548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes19c160.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.028236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes14c160.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3972620.4%148 W · 578 L-46.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No66c155.32$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.714154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes37c149.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6226038.5%100 W · 160 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c147.86$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7212,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes16c145.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.56835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c144.18$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.594,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes14c138.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.323,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No62c134$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.35651.8%29 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No79c133.95$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.82,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes20c133.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.791929.9%19 W · 173 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No60c131.52$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.112,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No74c131.04$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5427578.5%216 W · 59 L+51.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+29%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No71c123.9$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.012,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No70c121.31$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.852,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6714…e4f7backed Yes30c116.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes10c113.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.560032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes19c111.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.772245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes37c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.73531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No62c105.54$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.162,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No63c105.29$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.182,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes31c104.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3625429.1%74 W · 180 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c101.51$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.212,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No66c101$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2227944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4688150.5%445 W · 436 L-3.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5118157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No68c96.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.852,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes38c92.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3667838.6%262 W · 416 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes33c89.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306643.9%29 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes14c89.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6366834.3%229 W · 439 L+37.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe175…a473backed No74c89.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c88.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.152,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes45c88.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3719437.1%72 W · 122 L-12.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes16c88.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.352,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…6307backed Yes41c85.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.653237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes38c82.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5829051.4%149 W · 141 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211444.7%51 W · 63 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.832149.8%160 W · 161 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No64c79.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.762,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked No65c77.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.075872.4%42 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes38c72.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.275341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed Yes28c71.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes15c71.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8346736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c71.07$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.633,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No79c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4314262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No58c66.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0123847.9%114 W · 124 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes16c66.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5137027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No69c64.92$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.448763.2%55 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No69c63.07$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3156067.1%376 W · 184 L+26.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes18c62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.162,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No79c60.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.71,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.665,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c57.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.55,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes36c55.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6210backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes41c48.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7920241.1%83 W · 119 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c47.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.612,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c46.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.912,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.044,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No75c43.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6457158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No64c42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.251,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes36c40.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.712,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No62c40.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.131,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2426960.2%162 W · 107 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105018%9 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1650462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d5…7227backed Yes36c39.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.123046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked No64c39.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.31747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+53.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No71c38.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1417262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes31c38.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No66c38.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.122,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9770675.5%533 W · 173 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes31c36.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.444760%268 W · 179 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No62c36.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.983,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes38c36.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7818350.8%93 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes34c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5655238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c33.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.