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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,582 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x579d…247cbacked Yes1c1,538$15 inLost-$15.248028.8%23 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost-$3017224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes1c1,387$17 inLost-$17.07190%0 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes7c999.95$70 inLost-$7020710.1%21 W · 186 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes3c657.99$17 inLost-$17.331,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes2c544.59$11 inLost-$10.8986230.7%265 W · 597 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes20c499.93$99 inLost-$98.981,86625.4%474 W · 1,392 L+134.7wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes5c489.3$25 inLost-$252412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes9c299.14$28 inLost-$28.3872620.4%148 W · 578 L-46.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes24c192.92$45 inLost-$45.352222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c179.62$20 inLost-$20.177,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes24c157.24$38 inLost-$37.684,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c128.15$100 inWon+$28.192,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes24c108.14$26 inLost-$26.3158247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost-$1415327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No74c100$74 inWon+$268956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e00…5a84backed No73c100$73 inWon+$271566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes26c97.8$25 inLost-$25.4380247.3%379 W · 423 L-29.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81c5…9d28backed Yes22c87.35$19 inLost-$191020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes18c80.41$14 inLost-$14.237327.4%20 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes26c79.96$21 inLost-$20.6958850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c61$44 inWon+$16.692,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No75c42.2$32 inWon+$10.4824570.6%173 W · 72 L+22.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes29c34.38$10 inLost-$10.033,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c25.16$19 inWon+$6.2910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No71c21$15 inWon+$6.0949259.6%293 W · 199 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No70c20.58$14 inWon+$6.1841274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5c…c6f3backed No73c13.7$10 inWon+$3.74454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.