MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3484499c554e0ed9a1d96c8dfe3b92122ab8670052cdf55f563849f31667446a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 9,427$2,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,922.37 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 5,069$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.59 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 4,569$3,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.49 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 2,717$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.37 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 2,343$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.33 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…e371backed Over | 52c | 1,941$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 44c | 640$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 69c | 619$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 564.27$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.28 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 556$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.13 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 44c | 473.52$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Under | 69c | 449.28$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 69c | 380.72$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Under | 46c | 370$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 69c | 349.67$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed Under | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 42c | 224.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 69c | 219.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 46c | 184$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 69c | 152.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 69c | 137.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 69c | 109.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 63c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Under | 69c | 49.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Under | 69c | 49.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Under | 69c | 49.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 69c | 45.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…1c46backed Under | 69c | 41.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over | 42c | 25.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 69c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 69c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.