MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6319757e1d2eafd2096d542b97e1e685b147a465356513ae7c71dc6612f7299f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 43c | 42,879$18,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,559.47 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 20,856$11,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,091.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Under | 57c | 12,222$6,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,255.46 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 3,500$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 57c | 2,483$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.44 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Under | 64c | 1,499$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.62 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 1,421$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 1,364$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.59 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 1,117$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.5 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 55c | 1,099$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 900$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.1 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Over | 45c | 627.29$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 56c | 535.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.46 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…d57fbacked Under | 58c | 378.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…bb4ebacked Under | 58c | 229.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 224.43$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 54c | 205.09$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 54c | 184$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 151.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 139.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 9c | 119.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…cbafbacked Under | 17c | 112.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.44per pick | 19cpaid | +281.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 104.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Under | 57c | 82.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 78.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 70.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 67.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 44c | 62.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 57c | 53.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 38c | 53.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 43c | 42.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 392 | 53.6%210 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 41c | 24.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 57c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.