Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348c71db4db7d67d68b08ea2c7d7d9451435bfdc9b8b94ff93fcffd4b703e6f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 72c | 285.67$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 9c | 245.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 226$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 192.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 180.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 157.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 22c | 136.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 25c | 100.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 92.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 83.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 75c | 81.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 76c | 67.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…8648backed No | 80c | 62.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 53.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…5093backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 27c | 47.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 31c | 45.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 74c | 41.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 39.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 27c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.