Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15b4c32a1a434d94fb4799c83eca449caa0168d33a10fa0c036e82fb5a8cb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,868$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 12c | 1,884$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 23c | 952.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.99 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 78c | 907.05$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.69 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 59c | 681.83$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.29 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…ae17backed Yes | 32c | 317.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 295.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 21c | 247.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 66c | 246.65$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 37c | 238.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 235.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 198.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 189.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 184.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 17c | 182.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 179.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 47c | 154.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 44c | 154.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 28c | 149.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 149.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…4859backed Yes | 73c | 144.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 133.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 16c | 125.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 119$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 75c | 107.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 66c | 91.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 13c | 89.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…036dbacked Yes | 61c | 82.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 78.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…fa0cbacked No | 77c | 77.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 73.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 66.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 65.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 47c | 65.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 70c | 63.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 61.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 61.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 48c | 61.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 41c | 59.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 57.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…6be3backed No | 56c | 53.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +530.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 51.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 53c | 49.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 48.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 22c | 47.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 46c | 46.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 47c | 46.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 44c | 45.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 40.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 62c | 40.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 40.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 39.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 52c | 38.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 51c | 37.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 28c | 35.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 56c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 58c | 34.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 34.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 49c | 33.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 38c | 33.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 71c | 33.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 44c | 30.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…7a0dbacked Yes | 50c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 68c | 25.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 60c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 60c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 65c | 21.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 52c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…73eebacked No | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1109…e3adbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.