Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04ceb0832dcb10986721f74102c7ffbc05b080ce01c7452f5b765e95c1274d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 33c | 928.44$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.31 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 453.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 357.13$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.82 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 305.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 68c | 273$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 79c | 262.14$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 245$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 209.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 204$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 33c | 191.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 44c | 181.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed No | 47c | 176.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 174.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 167.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 150.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 144.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 144.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 140.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 35c | 135.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 42c | 120.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 115$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 42c | 114.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 101.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 98.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…61b7backed Yes | 29c | 98.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 25c | 89.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 83.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 29c | 78.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 21c | 68.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 67.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 56.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 36c | 55.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 24c | 52.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…1515backed No | 78c | 52.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 28c | 51.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed No | 57c | 50.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 50.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 48.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 31c | 48.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 29c | 48.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 46.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 45.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 69c | 42.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 63c | 41.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…7a0dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 38.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 64c | 37.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 64c | 32.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 32.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 32.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 66c | 30.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 67c | 28.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 25.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 55c | 25.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 24.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 23.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 66c | 22.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 22.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 73c | 20.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 62c | 19.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 71c | 17.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.