Tennis · resolved market
Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Li Tu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3491e0806428085a6f2a9c3aaa94521a38ef0c7ec105156a6eac4302a7d3763d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lukas Neumayerof Lukas Neumayer, Li Tu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Li Tu | 13c | 9,285$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.04 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Li Tu | 17c | 2,844$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.84 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Li Tu | 15c | 1,830$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.57 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…7bdabacked Lukas Neumayer | 72c | 1,505$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.14 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Li Tu | 16c | 1,381$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Li Tu | 1c | 1,228$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Li Tu | 17c | 1,113$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Li Tu | 12c | 1,031$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Li Tu | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Li Tu | 25c | 939.03$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.45 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Li Tu | 17c | 504.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lukas Neumayer | 73c | 499.8$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Li Tu | 13c | 482.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Li Tu | 28c | 478.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Li Tu | 14c | 453.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 678 | 38.3%260 W · 418 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Li Tu | 14c | 340.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 329 | 35%115 W · 214 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Li Tu | 17c | 239.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Li Tu | 15c | 237.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11cd…e5a8backed Li Tu | 8c | 219.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Lukas Neumayer | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 457 | 44.2%202 W · 255 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Li Tu | 15c | 180.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Li Tu | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Li Tu | 15c | 177.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…cd33backed Li Tu | 9c | 175.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…3a00backed Li Tu | 7c | 152.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Li Tu | 16c | 147.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a311backed Li Tu | 14c | 133.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Li Tu | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Li Tu | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -21.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…b31bbacked Li Tu | 15c | 98.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Li Tu | 27c | 96.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Li Tu | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Li Tu | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Li Tu | 14c | 71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 70.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Li Tu | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…b4b6backed Li Tu | 19c | 59.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…9b16backed Lukas Neumayer | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Lukas Neumayer | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Lukas Neumayer | 77c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Lukas Neumayer | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.