TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,001 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros39c1,135$438 inWon+$697.1311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners68c922.15$626 inLost-$626.352,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Seattle Mariners4c400$14 inLost-$14.470737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Houston Astros76c276.69$211 inWon+$65.2218860.1%113 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+237.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners46c250$115 inLost-$1155,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcca9…af95backed Seattle Mariners10c212.23$21 inLost-$2180%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros49c193$95 inWon+$98.411,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners60c130.74$79 inLost-$78.711,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros21c116.62$25 inWon+$91.834,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Houston Astros36c81.42$29 inWon+$52.1130548.9%149 W · 156 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros16c77.19$12 inWon+$64.849,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Seattle Mariners74c76$56 inLost-$56.241,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros26c76$20 inWon+$56.243,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners74c75$56 inLost-$55.58,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Seattle Mariners47c67.97$32 inLost-$3225053.2%133 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.