MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f908d4878626d28cf4f301affa8e74a2b8e96cdb6677917abad2bc7930aa267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Seattle Mariners | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 9,770$4,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,084.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 69c | 9,218$6,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 3,671$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.95 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 20c | 2,953$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.69 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 50c | 1,444$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 1,345$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.24 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 29c | 792.75$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 40c | 673.77$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.55 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Seattle Mariners | 5c | 617$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 575.42$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.23 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…1b78backed Houston Astros | 7c | 515$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Houston Astros | 24c | 417.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.24 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 399$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 399$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 35c | 276.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.61 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 275.15$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 80c | 213.49$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Houston Astros | 52c | 193.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 152.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 152.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 143.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 119.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 38c | 117.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 95.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Houston Astros | 50c | 88.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Seattle Mariners | 12c | 88.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Houston Astros | 53c | 84.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 82.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Houston Astros | 52c | 82.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 42c | 62.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9b…8b23backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 51.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Houston Astros | 67c | 41.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 35.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 32.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Houston Astros | 50c | 32.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Houston Astros | 50c | 30.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Houston Astros | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 48c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.