Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c55f36d6f1bca25ead4c26a8f38c1cacdaf3c56b7bf1e85aa17d7c298aa11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 45,265$25,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,063.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 43c | 40,000$17,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,200 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 50c | 6,083$3,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,041.32 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 34c | 3,173$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.66 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 3,057$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.59 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 1,656$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 34c | 527.5$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.47 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 79c | 522$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…6e3ebacked Yes | 63c | 475$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…54e7backed Yes | 72c | 435.79$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 17c | 434.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 68c | 346.16$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd01…d5acbacked Yes | 78c | 324.36$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 32c | 269.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 52c | 255.42$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cb62backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…c04ebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 50c | 180.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 48c | 154.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 70c | 134.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 43c | 133.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 66c | 111.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…f1e2backed Yes | 67c | 107.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 29c | 84.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 69c | 81.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 32c | 78.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 71c | 70.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 30c | 67.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 29c | 65.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 68c | 34.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…b046backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557f…efa5backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…290cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d00ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…b538backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…36bcbacked Yes | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…cd9dbacked Yes | 72c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will Hamburger SV vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.