Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-25?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f18da40393d29ed15b77d23b386104773a3e460b0b3eac5be19a4ce2da99bd

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 25, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $76,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes	44c	40,000$17,591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,590.55	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No	56c	29,374$16,449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,924.45	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	64c	9,744$6,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,473.03	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	24c	6,704$1,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,603.2	223	32.3%72 W · 151 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	57c	4,049$2,309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,739.92	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No	60c	3,755$2,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,502.66	141	57.4%81 W · 60 L	+8.4wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes	40c	3,627$1,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,450.68	148	46.6%69 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No	74c	3,558$2,639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$918.99	191	53.9%103 W · 88 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	23c	2,817$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.6	238	42.9%102 W · 136 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes	45c	2,777$1,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,244.57	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed No	60c	2,744$1,647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,097.69	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+24%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked No	73c	2,599$1,904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$695.17	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed No	55c	2,020$1,111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$908.88	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73af…fa89backed Yes	39c	1,787$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Yes	18c	1,700$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes	46c	1,097$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	188	40.4%76 W · 112 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes	45c	888.89$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No	56c	700$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes	44c	681.82$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No	56c	565.91$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	56c	554.99$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.2	143	64.3%92 W · 51 L	+14.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4dd…3c12backed Yes	19c	523.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No	57c	516$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.6	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No	77c	469.82$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.89	46	50%23 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No	60c	458.5$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.23	193	47.2%91 W · 102 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No	57c	392.28$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.68	95	52.6%50 W · 45 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No	56c	356.98$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.07	142	54.2%77 W · 65 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Yes	43c	348.95$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No	56c	250$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	+10.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	43c	246.27$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.9	511	36.8%188 W · 323 L	-28.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5350…c52cbacked Yes	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	24c	225$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.25	210	41.9%88 W · 122 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	85	32.9%28 W · 57 L	-6.1wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc759…b0d2backed Yes	21c	215.92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb93…63d9backed Yes	45c	209.22$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed No	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	40c	190$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes	43c	186.15$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	22c	153.9$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes	45c	121$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.05	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes	45c	120$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	50.9%57 W · 55 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ee…efe0backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	199	43.2%86 W · 113 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ab…2798backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.41per pick	39cpaid	+76.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca31…fc23backed Yes	44c	97.09$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.72	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes	42c	92.78$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.26	343	42%144 W · 199 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b16…a327backed Yes	41c	90$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5b…24edbacked No	57c	81.14$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8242…d392backed Yes	20c	75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05d1…aa62backed Yes	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c1…692cbacked Yes	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.7wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…7724backed No	57c	67.44$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No	57c	63.16$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.16	59	59.3%35 W · 24 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ab…fcabbacked Yes	44c	62.52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes	45c	60$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Yes	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+6.4wins	+0.21per pick	49cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3f43…1754backed Yes	45c	51.11$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.16per pick	62cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x797e…4616backed Yes	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	99	37.4%37 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d33…e208backed Yes	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28e6…0dfabacked Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	55cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb91…f766backed Yes	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x091a…0cd5backed Yes	45c	46.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…c04ebacked Yes	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7684…6bcdbacked Yes	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5cf…c348backed Yes	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No	56c	35.7$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	550	58.7%323 W · 227 L	+23.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2082…c686backed No	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7869…61d8backed No	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	61cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a1…435cbacked Yes	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No	59c	29.83$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.23	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes	46c	26.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	43	69.8%30 W · 13 L	+5.5wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-25?this page
Will Hamburger SV vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-25?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-25?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event