Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34d39e8cd2673017fcfcb342dd813b3568e5655b45ae66a825f20e3e59138787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Tideboundof Passion UA, Team Tidebound
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Passion UA | 20c | 3,171$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.22 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Passion UA | 19c | 1,662$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.51 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Tidebound | 80c | 1,499$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.06 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Tidebound | 69c | 1,480$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.93 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Passion UA | 45c | 1,314$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.9 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Passion UA | 27c | 1,227$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.78 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Passion UA | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Team Tidebound | 64c | 467.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Passion UA | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Team Tidebound | 78c | 171.45$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Team Tidebound | 59c | 169.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Passion UA | 43c | 142.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Team Tidebound | 59c | 141.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Tidebound | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Passion UA | 38c | 127.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Team Tidebound | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Tidebound | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Passion UA | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Passion UA | 20c | 96.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Passion UA | 41c | 85.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Team Tidebound | 60c | 81.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed Passion UA | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Passion UA | 22c | 65.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Passion UA | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Tidebound | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Team Tidebound | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Passion UA | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Team Tidebound | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Tidebound (BO3)Team Tidebound won
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 WinnerTeam Tidebound won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.