Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34d98e0a1b66d00c84e6befde14495364e2b1558976cacdef5cf511538b912a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 645.95$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 13c | 409.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 314.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 15c | 302.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 273.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 13c | 245.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 17c | 242.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 241.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 217.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 7c | 199.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 15c | 195.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 185.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 152.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 79c | 136.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 136.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 17c | 107.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 103.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 20c | 101.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 16c | 97.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 97.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 93.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 18c | 77.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 18c | 76.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 72.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 22c | 69.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 69.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 29c | 63.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 25c | 44.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 27c | 40.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 30.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 73c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.