Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419a04befd9f9bf99f048b24bf97049aacc3d6df1a8dd3f839d6538214d4acce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 661.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 414.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 264.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 79c | 257.22$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 246.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 15c | 137.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 126.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 102.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 90.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 80c | 84.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 20c | 71.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 23c | 64.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 64.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…3880backed No | 79c | 63.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 60.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 51.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 49.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 46.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 46.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…2094backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 38.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 31.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 71c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 77c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.