Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05a651f549da32d64f4437759a183529e040a126e0d4c278a034aa30b4400a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 2,867$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 749.59$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 515.04$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 54c | 507$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.41 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 372.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 66c | 294.32$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.09 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 269.11$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 254.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 214$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 80c | 210.63$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 198.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 17c | 198.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 180$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 23c | 178.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 78c | 168.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 26c | 166.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 163$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 157.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 153.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 20c | 140.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 136.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 135.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 53c | 133$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 132.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 34c | 119$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 46c | 109.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 97.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 97.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 95.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 93.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 23c | 86.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 82.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 62c | 78.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 73.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 70.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 23c | 64.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 26c | 64.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 38c | 62.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 50.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 23c | 48.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 70c | 42.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…3c70backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 38.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 31.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 29.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 38c | 28.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 27.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 26.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 55c | 25.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 24.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 54c | 23.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 21.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.