MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34dac7a7607fa85927616b232c7faab76e4f75dff6d00961b93f52c38ebd1c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 9,861$4,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,719.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 3,168$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 1,995$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 1,339$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 47c | 835.02$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.38 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 489$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 375$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 332.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 327.77$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 298.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 55c | 209.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 60c | 166.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…03a5backed Under | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 126.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 114.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 52c | 110.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 99.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 91.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 45c | 77.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 54c | 55.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…fb09backed Under | 44c | 37.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 45c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 43c | 27.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 63c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.