Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34eb7a6ce694754876d0d2ba668583520e137fac674acab323332558c3bb4e44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 74c | 30,000$22,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,200 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 26c | 18,793$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,906.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 26c | 9,893$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,320.82 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 17c | 1,897$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 27c | 1,850$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,569$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 28c | 840.44$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.04 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 769.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.22 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 45c | 739.98$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.8 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 72c | 722.13$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.93 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 720.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.04 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 30c | 530.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 27c | 411.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.11 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 273$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 262.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 8c | 217.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 24c | 87.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 62.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb5…be6cbacked Yes | 78c | 55.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 35.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…d2d8backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…1763backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-19?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.