Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2643ad8a150bd014462bbc23c8a215e42b13497eb2b3edd6d2c70c2795bc6ffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 9,088$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,455.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 44c | 8,000$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 4,930$2,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 4,287$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.31 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 16c | 3,533$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 18c | 2,935$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 42c | 2,120$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 71c | 1,751$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.9 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…b641backed No | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…936abacked Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 205.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 63c | 182.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 64c | 147.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…9803backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 74c | 81.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…458bbacked Yes | 17c | 69.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +71%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 39c | 54.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…7b65backed No | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 61c | 30.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-19?No won
- Will SC Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.