Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34fb8858c0f5fd793e700273b097a276fd6484d84c961c50ced46b8f4aa69b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kocaelisporof Galatasaray SK, Kocaelispor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Kocaelispor | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…7314backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 3,170$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kocaelispor | 46c | 2,417$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.14 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…ed91backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 1,490$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Galatasaray SK | 56c | 1,058$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…030ebacked Kocaelispor | 45c | 967$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 819.96$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.98 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Kocaelispor | 48c | 545.39$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Kocaelispor | 49c | 541.93$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.81 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…ca32backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 521$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Galatasaray SK | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 469.34$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.83 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Galatasaray SK | 54c | 450.19$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…73a2backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…698bbacked Galatasaray SK | 56c | 340.76$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Galatasaray SK | 51c | 340.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Galatasaray SK | 40c | 272.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Galatasaray SK | 25c | 204.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Kocaelispor | 48c | 200.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…dc05backed Galatasaray SK | 49c | 199.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Galatasaray SK | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Galatasaray SK | 21c | 160.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Kocaelispor | 47c | 156.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Kocaelispor | 46c | 150.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Galatasaray SK | 41c | 147.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…05a5backed Galatasaray SK | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Galatasaray SK | 55c | 123.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kocaelispor | 48c | 113.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Galatasaray SK | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Galatasaray SK | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked Galatasaray SK | 43c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Galatasaray SK | 54c | 99.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…4e17backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 89.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…2020backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 88.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…03bbbacked Galatasaray SK | 55c | 88.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 88.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kocaelispor | 45c | 88.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Galatasaray SK | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Kocaelispor | 42c | 87.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kocaelispor | 53c | 83.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…2355backed Galatasaray SK | 48c | 82.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Galatasaray SK | 39c | 70.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…79f3backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 67.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kocaelispor | 42c | 66.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Galatasaray SK | 60c | 65.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Kocaelispor | 52c | 64.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Galatasaray SK | 58c | 63.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 61.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Kocaelispor | 46c | 59.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…ae1dbacked Kocaelispor | 47c | 58.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked Galatasaray SK | 55c | 57.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Kocaelispor | 53c | 53.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Galatasaray SK | 51c | 51.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Galatasaray SK | 51c | 50.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Kocaelispor | 52c | 47.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kocaelispor | 51c | 46.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Galatasaray SK | 56c | 44.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Kocaelispor | 64c | 40.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Kocaelispor | 48c | 36.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5c…5a5fbacked Galatasaray SK | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…8f98backed Kocaelispor | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Kocaelispor | 45c | 31.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Kocaelispor | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Kocaelispor | 58c | 29.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Kocaelispor | 46c | 27.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Galatasaray SK | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…f849backed Galatasaray SK | 56c | 22.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Galatasaray SK | 53c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Kocaelispor | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Galatasaray SK | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Galatasaray SK | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5)this page
- Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 1.5Over won
- Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 2.5Under won
- Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 3.5Under won
- Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5)Kocaelispor won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.