Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.80 Week of August 17 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3503935aceae9d7f8990f5a5444f295e7d8496cc0e387cf1966a0163f770f2ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x403f…94f1backed No | 61c | 1,115$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.62 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 41c | 992.28$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.35 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 37c | 513.49$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.97 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 410.18$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.29 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf43b…7673backed No | 60c | 284$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 42c | 252.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes | 42c | 215.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 187.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 11c | 184.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked Yes | 33c | 102.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed Yes | 43c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 57.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 64c | 49.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 52c | 35.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 42c | 28.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 57c | 23.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.80 Week of August 17 2026?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.70 Week of August 17 2026?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of August 17 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.