Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351a5070cdca1e1639a70e2c4811fffbd8b5db3446b4e0f1dfffc4434f289651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof LGD Gaming, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 1,630$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.18 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked LGD Gaming | 26c | 1,338$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.66 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 982$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked LGD Gaming | 23c | 849.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed LGD Gaming | 34c | 685.02$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.02 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 567.13$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 567$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked LGD Gaming | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed LGD Gaming | 22c | 459.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked LGD Gaming | 23c | 419.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 409.49$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 192 | 60.4%116 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 251.8$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 221.63$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed LGD Gaming | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed LGD Gaming | 23c | 182$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked LGD Gaming | 21c | 163$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked LGD Gaming | 24c | 125.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked LGD Gaming | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…9b77backed LGD Gaming | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked LGD Gaming | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked LGD Gaming | 25c | 60.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 54.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed LGD Gaming | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 322 | 41.6%134 W · 188 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…7d91backed LGD Gaming | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 31.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked LGD Gaming | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…f414backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group StageNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.