Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba229b0c7abe1206389f3e3075aae02aea8314292e73ea8e50f5fcb501d8bac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 45c | 465.29$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.07 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 42c | 411.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.58 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 52c | 225$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Over | 51c | 184.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Over | 51c | 182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Over | 50c | 164$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 65c | 151.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 31c | 150.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 70c | 130.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 66c | 93.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 31c | 81.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…573ebacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 55c | 45.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 48c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 50c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group StageNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.