AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3527dd3e24e2d712c148d2f23286369d52704557e6a8df3312f934cbe772b102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 45c | 2,794$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.93 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 5c | 2,746$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 79c | 1,924$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.21 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 34c | 1,774$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.38 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 7c | 999.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…046abacked Yes | 13c | 775$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…1a6abacked Yes | 7c | 715.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 692.73$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 537.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 483.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…31dcbacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 4c | 329$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 11c | 306.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…dd18backed Yes | 60c | 272.71$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…73bdbacked Yes | 15c | 268.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 36c | 248.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 13c | 190.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 18c | 190.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…97d5backed Yes | 11c | 181.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…6fdebacked Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 116.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 52c | 110.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…42a3backed Yes | 50c | 89.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 43c | 69.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 52c | 56.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…27efbacked Yes | 58c | 48.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109f…5ae7backed No | 60c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f4…bcc0backed Yes | 42c | 33.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…cb3fbacked No | 60c | 25.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?this page
- Will CapCut - Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Yes won
- Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
- Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.