TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,755 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox58c5,888$3,431 inLost-$3,431.314,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers42c4,210$1,748 inWon+$2,461.5510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers52c3,806$1,979 inWon+$1,827.114,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox46c1,681$775 inLost-$774.548,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Chicago White Sox58c582.81$340 inLost-$340.250856.9%289 W · 219 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Texas Rangers46c348.23$159 inWon+$188.9935658.1%207 W · 149 L+26.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox59c337.32$200 inLost-$200.071,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers66c309.06$204 inWon+$105.5311,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers45c266.09$120 inWon+$146.351,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Chicago White Sox58c243.15$140 inLost-$140.181,02658.1%596 W · 430 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Rangers72c200$144 inWon+$561,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Texas Rangers46c170.39$78 inWon+$92.3932434.6%112 W · 212 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Chicago White Sox59c168.66$100 inLost-$100.0443757%249 W · 188 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Chicago White Sox59c168.66$100 inLost-$100.0458358.5%341 W · 242 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…594dbacked Chicago White Sox60c77.36$47 inLost-$46.82751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd4…de15backed Texas Rangers47c65.96$31 inWon+$34.6720161.2%123 W · 78 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Texas Rangers45c61.5$28 inWon+$33.8319548.2%94 W · 101 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Texas Rangers59c54.55$32 inWon+$22.361646.4%286 W · 330 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Chicago White Sox58c52.62$31 inLost-$30.742030%6 W · 14 L-5.9wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-52.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xaae2…2383backed Chicago White Sox59c50.6$30 inLost-$30.012133.3%7 W · 14 L-5.4wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-41.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Texas Rangers51c37.97$19 inWon+$18.611,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f8…99d0backed Texas Rangers45c32.33$15 inWon+$17.7814154.6%77 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…e969backed Chicago White Sox62c22.72$14 inLost-$14.051030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.