MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceae82157bb3ee4bf9798ac25b172be58000f496fb0849fa58081b6b4b01542f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 47c | 118,589$55,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,852 | 446 | 46.9%209 W · 237 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 36,542$19,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,366 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 30,791$16,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,319.36 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 901 | 46.3%417 W · 484 L | +25.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 8,676$4,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,489.67 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 7,969$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,223.57 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 53c | 6,983$3,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.99 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…0eaebacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…a2d1backed Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 1,083 | 48.1%521 W · 562 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 46c | 2,660$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.57 | 486 | 48.8%237 W · 249 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Over | 48c | 2,246$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 2,048$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.48 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Under | 53c | 2,023$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.1 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 1,225$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.7 | 360 | 48.9%176 W · 184 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 1,104$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.99 | 877 | 53%465 W · 412 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 53c | 696.94$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.38 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 674.64$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.56 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 659.5$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.32 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 619.38$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.66 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Over | 47c | 618.82$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.97 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 585$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.05 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 55c | 545.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 45c | 360.74$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 1,003 | 24.7%248 W · 755 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 163$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 928 | 54%501 W · 427 L | +22.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 53c | 152.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 580 | 51.7%300 W · 280 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | -22.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 145$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…d82abacked Over | 47c | 144.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 53c | 135$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 757 | 53.2%403 W · 354 L | +24.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 120.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 413 | 41.2%170 W · 243 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | +12.9wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 47c | 106.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 553 | 47%260 W · 293 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…b743backed Over | 51c | 88.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 435 | 49.2%214 W · 221 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Over | 48c | 79.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 79.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 53c | 55.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 50c | 55.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Over | 47c | 48.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 53c | 43.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 47c | 41.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…4751backed Over | 48c | 39.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…3ae5backed Over | 48c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…9072backed Over | 48c | 36.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Under | 55c | 35.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…c949backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…568abacked Under | 54c | 30.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…59f4backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 810 | 55.1%446 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 46c | 23.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Under | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 392 | 53.6%210 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 926 | 69.5%644 W · 282 L | +94.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.