South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3566667c4a33442e1288ecc7c97f19c02ec6a3cc0e6e7524cbcaa3ddb6e4aa46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 23c | 1,249$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.08 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 75c | 1,155$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.83 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 28c | 1,026$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.61 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 77c | 635.68$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 16c | 608.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 72c | 493.24$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed Yes | 76c | 465.45$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 74c | 337$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 26c | 331$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 26c | 303.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…6977backed Yes | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 24c | 197.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 195.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Yes | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 71c | 153.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…7320backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 31c | 146.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Yes | 69c | 144.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 75c | 131.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Yes | 74c | 131$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Yes | 65c | 78.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Yes | 69c | 68.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked No | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…b235backed Yes | 74c | 33.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…d761backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Yes | 79c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.