Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356fab18c4068d402151eb4b39ad24c806f3a1f210d076ac3ab30aa4a20fc26e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DOGSENTof Ilbirs eSports, DOGSENT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,311 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 5,452$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.16 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked DOGSENT | 65c | 1,811$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.66 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 1,674$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.87 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 34c | 1,126$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.28 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 998.13$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked DOGSENT | 50c | 715.36$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.28 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked DOGSENT | 75c | 633$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 520$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 381.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf76…db81backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 380$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed DOGSENT | 43c | 380$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked DOGSENT | 49c | 369.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed DOGSENT | 59c | 318.04$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked DOGSENT | 73c | 307.15$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed DOGSENT | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 249.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed DOGSENT | 43c | 231.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 163.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed DOGSENT | 53c | 155$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 123.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed DOGSENT | 47c | 107.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked DOGSENT | 47c | 106.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 87.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed DOGSENT | 65c | 71.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed DOGSENT | 48c | 62.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed DOGSENT | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.