Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f508d8f2a9dc630dc7766fec25923acf892d4b3ddb644b79f123c11d3b1497e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, DOGSENT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,050 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked DOGSENT | 38c | 7,436$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.47 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked DOGSENT | 31c | 2,695$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.74 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 2,356$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.3 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 2,295$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.08 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 1,153$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.87 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 1,150$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed DOGSENT | 27c | 1,006$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 857.56$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.04 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 757.93$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.49 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 735.14$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…16c9backed DOGSENT | 43c | 688.23$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed DOGSENT | 43c | 687.1$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.27 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked DOGSENT | 8c | 567.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…022fbacked DOGSENT | 14c | 540.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed DOGSENT | 46c | 448.84$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed DOGSENT | 46c | 286.79$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DOGSENT | 39c | 234.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 228.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed DOGSENT | 46c | 205.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed DOGSENT | 44c | 201.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 185.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 139.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 135.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed DOGSENT | 45c | 124$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 99.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed DOGSENT | 38c | 86.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed DOGSENT | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 76.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked DOGSENT | 43c | 73.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked DOGSENT | 30c | 65.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed DOGSENT | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked DOGSENT | 34c | 52.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 50.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed DOGSENT | 40c | 47.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked DOGSENT | 39c | 42.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed DOGSENT | 44c | 41.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed DOGSENT | 40c | 34.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed DOGSENT | 38c | 28.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 23.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT - Game 1 WinnerDOGSENT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.