MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3578dc740da305270ea89526fdf61a3385d31c5a6129c3bdd3f660f0dfb188c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 2,516$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 2,420$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 801.51$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.98 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 277.78$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 131.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 122.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 68.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 54.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 30.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.