South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357ee8bf957beb3c437818c7d6ece5e00edc210cc6bf732a79ee168d3ca54f9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 11c | 2,002$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.22 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 75c | 996.66$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.16 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 25c | 989.97$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.78 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 17c | 325.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 75c | 279.58$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 234.02$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 227.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed Yes | 27c | 207.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 169.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 147.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 106.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 12c | 92.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 72c | 70.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 65.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…3c32backed Yes | 19c | 52.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 23c | 50.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 50.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…311fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 75c | 21.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 75c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed No | 73c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 78c | 14.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-06?this page
- Will CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.