Mls · resolved market
Will New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359d5def9549ee9ec161f790671ae712dd2e358f6f0f20512cc2365465edeeb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 703.38$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.91 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed No | 72c | 637.39$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 538.24$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 443.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 28c | 393.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 72c | 376.54$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 369.51$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 329.73$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 72c | 325$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 64c | 304.32$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 73c | 174.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 68c | 147.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 79c | 147.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 24c | 117.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 73c | 103.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 100.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 28c | 62.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 72c | 57.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 71c | 55.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.